Bitcoin Bears Dominate $30.3B Year-End Options Expiry Despite Stimulus Optimism

Bitcoin's options market is closing out the year with a bearish tone, as $30.3 billion worth of BTC options are set to expire. This significant event in the cryptocurrency derivatives market reflects cautious sentiment, even as U.S. economic stimulus hopes and a semi-bullish 2026 outlook provide potential upside catalysts.

What We Know

The year-end Bitcoin options expiry is a major occurrence, with $30.3 billion in notional value due to settle. Both Cointelegraph and BITRSS confirm that the current market positioning favors bears, with traders leaning towards downside protection rather than bullish bets.

This bearish sentiment persists despite two key factors that could traditionally support Bitcoin's price: expectations of U.S. economic stimulus measures and a cautiously optimistic outlook for Bitcoin's performance in 2026. The disconnect between these positive macroeconomic factors and the bearish options market positioning underscores the complexity of current market dynamics.

Key Details

Options expiries of this scale often influence Bitcoin's short-term price action, as traders adjust positions and market makers hedge their exposure. The $30.3 billion expiry is one of the largest for Bitcoin, making it a pivotal event for price discovery as 2024 transitions into 2025.

A bearish tilt in the options market typically indicates that more traders are betting on downside price movement through put options or scaling back bullish bets on call options. This positioning suggests that despite the broader macroeconomic backdrop, derivatives traders remain cautious about Bitcoin's near-term price trajectory.

The persistence of this bearish stance is particularly striking given the anticipation surrounding U.S. economic stimulus measures. Historically, such measures have been viewed as bullish for Bitcoin, as an expanded monetary supply often drives interest in cryptocurrencies as an inflation hedge. However, the lack of aggressive bullish positioning suggests skepticism about the timing or impact of these measures—or concerns about other market risks.

Similarly, while the broader outlook for 2026 leans semi-bullish, this optimism has not yet translated into near-term derivatives market activity. Traders may be adopting a wait-and-see approach, reflecting uncertainty about how macroeconomic and market-specific factors will play out in the coming months.

Why This Matters

Large options expiries like this one can create volatility, as traders close positions and market makers adjust their hedges. With $30.3 billion at stake, this expiry could have a significant influence on Bitcoin's price trajectory as the year ends and a new one begins.

The bearish sentiment in derivatives markets also serves as a counterbalance to overly optimistic narratives. While mainstream expectations point to stimulus-driven rallies and a positive 2026 outlook, the cautious positioning of options traders—often institutional investors—suggests a more defensive stance. This divergence between spot market sentiment and derivatives positioning could signal either a buying opportunity if bearish fears prove unfounded, or prudent risk management if unforeseen challenges arise.

For retail investors, this highlights the importance of monitoring derivatives markets alongside spot prices. Options positioning often reflects the views of sophisticated market participants and can provide early insights into potential price movements that may not yet be evident in the spot market.

Key entities: Bitcoin (BTC), U.S. investors
Sentiment: Bearish