Bitcoin May Test Deeper Lows, Analyst Says Open Interest Gap Signals Caution

Derivatives Market Remains Subdued

Bitcoin's open interest has not recovered to pre-October levels after a violent deleveraging event that wiped roughly 71,000 BTC from major exchanges. Total open interest sits more than 24,000 BTC below its pre-event peak, according to derivatives data cited by analysts tracking the market. This persistent gap suggests traders remain cautious about taking leveraged positions ahead of potential further downside.

Analyst Flags Sub-$61K Risk

On-chain analyst PlanB stated June 1 that the market was evenly split on whether February's $60,000 low marked the cycle bottom. However, PlanB's own on-chain analysis suggests greater than 50% probability of Bitcoin falling below $61,000, citing incomplete bottom formation patterns in profit/loss data. PlanB identified two potential support levels: the 200-week moving average near $61,000 and realized price near $53,000.

Bitcoin's May performance was negative across major trading venues. The cryptocurrency closed the month at $73,560, representing a 3.4% decline for May and the lowest monthly close in five months. Related research from other analysts has flagged the possibility of prolonged downward pressure extending into late 2027.

Why It Matters

For Traders

Subdued derivatives positioning and elevated liquidation risk below $61K warrant tighter stops and reduced leverage for any long positions near current levels.

For Investors

Incomplete bottom formation in on-chain metrics suggests multi-month consolidation or further drawdown before a sustained recovery; long accumulation may benefit from patience.

For Builders

Prolonged uncertainty and lower trading volume reduce user acquisition pressure on DeFi and trading protocols; network activity may remain range-bound for months.