Bitcoin at Risk of First Annual Red Close Since Peak: Analyst Insights

Bitcoin Faces Potential First Red Year Since Peak as Analyst Warns of Bear Market Confirmation

Despite reaching a remarkable all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, Bitcoin's year-end performance is now under scrutiny as the leading cryptocurrency risks closing the year in negative territory. This development has prompted fresh analysis about the ramifications of a red annual candle for Bitcoin's market cycle.

Analyst Perspective on Year-End Close

Cryptocurrency analyst CryptoBullet has weighed in on the implications of a potential negative yearly close for Bitcoin. According to the analyst, a red candle for 2025 would not signal a breakdown of Bitcoin's historically observed four-year cycle pattern. Rather, CryptoBullet suggests this would confirm entry into a bear market phase and indicate that the cycle top has already been established at the October peak.

Technical Analysis: The Doji Formation

From a technical standpoint, a red closing candle for 2025 is expected to form a doji candlestick pattern on the yearly timeframe. Doji candles are characterized by small bodies with opening and closing prices in close proximity, typically signaling market indecision and potential trend reversals. This formation would provide additional technical evidence supporting the bear market thesis.

Short-Term Outlook for 2026

CryptoBullet's analysis extends into early 2026, projecting a brief recovery phase characterized by what traders refer to as a "dead cat bounce"—a temporary price recovery following a significant decline. This short-term upward movement is expected to coincide with a rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies, potentially benefiting assets like XRP and various altcoins.

However, the analyst cautions that this relief rally is likely to be short-lived, with expectations of a "much deeper correction" for Bitcoin to follow. This projection suggests that any early-year gains may present exit opportunities rather than sustained recovery signals.

Market Implications

The potential confirmation of a bear market cycle carries significant implications for cryptocurrency investors and market participants. While Bitcoin has historically followed four-year cycles aligned with halving events, the current price action since the October peak represents a critical test of market structure. The coming weeks will determine whether Bitcoin can mount a year-end recovery or solidify 2025 as a pivotal turning point in the current cycle.

Investors are advised to monitor year-end price action closely as the annual close approaches, as this data point could set the tone for Bitcoin's trajectory throughout 2026.

Why It Matters

For Traders

Understanding market cycles and indicators like the doji pattern can help traders position themselves effectively during volatile periods.

For Investors

Long-term investors should be aware of potential bear market conditions, evaluating their strategies in light of recent price action to maintain their portfolio’s health.

For Builders

Developers and builders in the crypto space should recognize shifts in market sentiment as opportunities to innovate and adapt their projects in response to changing investor behaviors.