Fundstrat Predicts Ethereum Correction to $1,800 in 2026 Amid Crypto Volatility

A leaked internal research note from Fundstrat has stirred the crypto community, forecasting a significant downturn in the first half of 2026 that could see Ethereum prices drop to as low as $1,800—a roughly 40% decline from current levels around $3,000. The prediction contrasts sharply with recent public statements by Fundstrat's co-founder Tom Lee, raising questions about the firm's internal outlook on crypto markets.

What We Know

The leaked note, shared by Wu Blockchain on X, is titled "2026 Crypto Outlook: Near-Term Headwinds, Second-Half Upside" and authored by Sean Farrell, Fundstrat's head of digital asset strategy. Dated Wednesday, December 17, 2025, at 7:34 p.m. ET, the document outlines specific price targets for major cryptocurrencies:

• Ethereum (ETH): $1,800–$2,000
• Bitcoin (BTC): $60,000–$65,000
• Solana (SOL): $50–$75

The note characterizes these lower price levels as "attractive opportunities into year-end," suggesting the firm views the anticipated correction as a buying opportunity rather than a long-term bearish outlook.

Key Details

The timing and public nature of the leak have amplified its impact on market sentiment. Both NewsBTC and BITRSS confirmed the authenticity of the note, which was initially distributed to Fundstrat's research clients before circulating widely on social media.

The forecast has drawn particular attention due to its apparent contradiction with Tom Lee's recent statements. Lee had previously described Ethereum trading around $3,000 as "severely undervalued," a stance that appears at odds with Farrell's projection of further downside to the $1,800–$2,000 range. This discrepancy raises questions about whether differing views exist within Fundstrat or if the timing of the statements reflects evolving market conditions.

Despite predicting "near-term headwinds," the note's title hints at optimism for a market recovery in the second half of 2026, though specifics regarding catalysts or price targets remain unclear.

What's Still Uncertain

Several critical questions remain unanswered:

• The accuracy of the specific price targets is uncertain, as cryptocurrency markets are notoriously volatile and difficult to forecast with precision.
• Details about the "second-half upside" mentioned in the note are vague, with no clear catalysts or price targets provided.
• Fundstrat has yet to address the apparent divergence between Farrell's internal analysis and Lee's public bullish stance on Ethereum.
• While the note suggests defensive strategies if the outlook proves incorrect, specifics on these strategies have not been disclosed.

Why This Matters

Fundstrat Research is a respected institutional research firm whose analysis influences both retail and institutional crypto investors. Predictions from its analysts carry significant weight in shaping market sentiment.

A potential 40% correction in Ethereum, along with similar drawdowns in Bitcoin and Solana, would represent a major market event. Such a downturn could trigger widespread portfolio adjustments among institutional holders and affect billions in market capitalization.

For investors currently positioned in crypto markets, the leaked forecast presents a strategic dilemma: whether to take profits now in anticipation of lower entry points or maintain positions based on long-term conviction despite warnings of near-term headwinds from a trusted research source.

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Key Entities: Fundstrat Research, Tom Lee, Sean Farrell, Wu Blockchain, Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), Binance Blockchain Week, X (platform)
Sentiment: Neutral