Polymarket Says 30% Chance of US Invasion of Iran

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After Trump’s “a whole civilization will die tonight” post, markets were thrown into chaos. Then briefly calmed by news of a ceasefire. Here's what Polymarket odds tell: 1. “Iran vs Israel United States conflict ending by April 30th” at “a 70% chance." 2. “Will the United States invade Iran before 2027?” still sits at “a 30% chance.” Markets are pricing de-escalation, but not safety. As David says, “30% is not 0,” which is exactly why things feel better, but still “very very shaky.” #polymarket #iran #israel #trump #geopolitics #predictionmarkets #breakingnews #worldnews #middleeast #markets