Bitcoin Rejected at STH Cost Basis; $68,000 Support Eyed Next

Key Cost Basis Zones

Glassnode's latest weekly report highlights a rejection of Bitcoin within a zone containing historically significant cost basis levels. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis—which measures the average acquisition price of investors who purchased Bitcoin in the past 155 days—sits at $79,000. The True Market Mean, which tracks the break-even price for active market participants network-wide, is positioned at $78,000. Bitcoin's recent price action tested this zone and was rejected, according to the analytics firm.

Short-Term Holders as Market Indicators

Short-term holders are considered the weak side of the market due to their relatively brief holding periods and sensitivity to price movements. During downturns, these newer entrants are prone to panic-sell near their break-even points. Glassnode notes that retests of the STH Cost Basis often trigger selling pressure in bearish environments, as holders seek to exit positions near their acquisition prices rather than accept losses.

Next Support Level

Following the rejection near $79,000, Glassnode suggests Bitcoin could encounter support at the -1 standard deviation of the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, estimated around $68,000. This metric represents a statistical band below the average cost basis of short-term holders and has historically acted as a floor in prior market cycles.

Why It Matters

For Traders

A break below $79,000 may signal further downside toward $68,000 if short-term holder panic selling accelerates and the -1 SD level is tested.

For Investors

Short-term holder cost basis rejection suggests weak hands are still active in the market; sustained price stability above $78,000 would indicate longer-term accumulation.

For Builders

On-chain realized price metrics inform user behavior models for protocols pricing Bitcoin collateral or managing liquidation thresholds in DeFi applications.