Robinhood Prediction Market Revenue Seen Tripling to $586M by 2026
Bernstein projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will reach $586 million in 2026, up from $150 million in 2025, driven by World Cup betting activity that has pushed daily volumes to $4.8 billion. The forecast reflects growing mainstream adoption of event-based trading on the platform.
Key Takeaways
- 1## Bernstein's Revenue Projection Bernstein estimated Monday that Robinhood's prediction market business will generate $586 million in revenue during 2026, representing a nearly four-fold increase from the $150 million the firm projects for 2025.
- 2The projection assumes sustained growth in event-driven trading activity across Robinhood's Markets platform, which the brokerage launched to allow retail users to trade binary outcomes on real-world events.
- 3## World Cup Driving Current Volume World Cup betting has accelerated daily trading volumes on the platform to as high as $4.
- 48 billion, according to Bernstein's note.
- 5The surge reflects strong retail participation in sports-linked prediction markets, a category that has grown materially in visibility since regulatory clarity around event contracts improved in 2024 and 2025.
Bernstein's Revenue Projection
Bernstein estimated Monday that Robinhood's prediction market business will generate $586 million in revenue during 2026, representing a nearly four-fold increase from the $150 million the firm projects for 2025. The projection assumes sustained growth in event-driven trading activity across Robinhood's Markets platform, which the brokerage launched to allow retail users to trade binary outcomes on real-world events.
World Cup Driving Current Volume
World Cup betting has accelerated daily trading volumes on the platform to as high as $4.8 billion, according to Bernstein's note. The surge reflects strong retail participation in sports-linked prediction markets, a category that has grown materially in visibility since regulatory clarity around event contracts improved in 2024 and 2025.
Broader Implications for the Business
The revenue expansion would make prediction markets a meaningful contributor to Robinhood's overall business mix. The firm has positioned the category as a growth vector alongside its core equity and options trading operations, with early user adoption suggesting sustained demand for non-traditional betting vehicles among retail investors.
Why It Matters
For Traders
High daily volumes on Robinhood Markets suggest deep liquidity for event contracts, though prediction market spreads can widen during volatile periods.
For Investors
Prediction markets represent a new revenue stream for Robinhood with potential to diversify earnings beyond traditional brokerage commissions and margin interest.
For Builders
Retail prediction market adoption at scale validates the regulatory and UX frameworks emerging around event contracts, potentially encouraging protocol teams to launch similar products.
