Standard Chartered Says Bitcoin Low 'Almost In' After 14% Weekly Drop
Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick said Bitcoin's bottom is "almost in" after the asset fell 14% in seven days to about $62,500-$63,700, its lowest since February. Strategy's first net sale of Bitcoin in years, record-scale ETF outflows and a tight liquidation picture underpin his view that the bear market may be nearing its final stage.
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Price Action and the Trigger
Bitcoin fell about 14% over seven days to levels not seen since February, with sources placing the latest price between roughly $62,500 and $63,700 on Wednesday. Bitcoin Magazine reported a session low near $61,463, the first breach of that level since the February crash. The asset now sits roughly 51% below its all-time high of $126,277, set in October 2025.
The sell-off accelerated after a Monday SEC filing showed Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin between May 26 and May 31 for about $2.5 million, at an average price of $77,135. Bitcoin Magazine described it as the firm's first net reduction of holdings in years, a break from co-founder Michael Saylor's long-standing "never sell" stance. The sale funded dividend obligations on Strategy's STRC preferred shares, which carry an 11.5% variable annual dividend. Bitcoin dropped below $72,000 the same day, and Strategy's stock fell near 6%.
ETF Flows and Institutional Demand
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded 13 consecutive days of net outflows, the longest streak since the products launched in early 2024. Bitcoin Magazine put cumulative withdrawals at about $3.45 billion over that run. The week ending May 29 saw $1.42 billion in net outflows, which both outlets describe as the third-largest weekly withdrawal on record. May closed with $2.30 billion in cumulative ETF outflows, the weakest month of 2026.
The outlets differ on the wider flow picture. NewsBTC cited Bitcoin Foundation tracking of more than $4.21 billion in outflows over the preceding three weeks, a figure Bitcoin Magazine did not report. Bitcoin Magazine also noted that cumulative net inflows since launch remain at $54.2 billion and that the 11 U.S.-listed funds hold about 674,000 BTC, down from a peak near 682,000.
Kendrick's Three Arguments for a Floor
Kendrick's case rests on three points. First, he expects Strategy to repeat its late-2022 pattern, when the firm bought more Bitcoin than it sold within two days, potentially buying back up to 100 times the 32 BTC sold. A confirmed purchase as early as next Monday would, in his view, be a tentative sign the low is in. Second, he says ETF holdings are more structurally resilient than he feared in February. Third, Bitcoin Magazine reported $1.5 billion in futures liquidations during the sell-off, in line with January, and argued that a smaller pool of leveraged longs now remains exposed to forced selling.
NewsBTC framed the same analysis as three risk conditions rather than three bullish signals: whether ETF outflows keep accelerating, whether the Federal Reserve's June and July meetings produce a hawkish surprise on the dot plot, and whether Bitcoin dominance, above 60%, falls to the 52-54% range that has historically accompanied broad-based crypto selling. Both outlets cite Kendrick's year-end target of $100,000 for Bitcoin, which NewsBTC notes would require about a 60% gain from current prices.
Technical Context and Open Questions
NewsBTC reported that Bitcoin has reached the lower boundary of its Power Law corridor, with the Power Law Oscillator at 4.4%, and that the price trades near the 200-week simple moving average. It attributed to CoinDesk the observation that previous bear markets ended around that average, though it is a historical pattern rather than a guarantee. Bitcoin Magazine did not cite these valuation measures.
The outcome will depend on the next few weeks of ETF flow data, Fed signaling and dominance metrics. Strategy's next SEC filings, which would show whether the expected repurchase occurs, are the clearest near-term test of Kendrick's thesis.
Why It Matters
For Traders
Watch Strategy's next SEC filing and daily ETF flow data near the $61,500 session low, since a confirmed buyback or a break below that level would each shift near-term positioning.
For Investors
Kendrick's thesis hinges on ETF holdings and Strategy's balance sheet holding up, so the next few months of flow data will test whether institutional demand has truly stabilized.
For Builders
Protocols and products that depend on Strategy's buying behavior or on ETF inflow assumptions should stress-test models against a sustained drawdown and a dominance break below 54%.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
