Adam Back Says Bank Model Portfolios and Pension Funds Are Bitcoin's Third Adoption Wave
Blockstream CEO Adam Back says Bitcoin is entering a third adoption phase driven by banks, model portfolios, and pension funds, following individual and ETF-led waves. He cited some major investment banks recommending a 2%-4% Bitcoin allocation, though the sources do not name those banks and the claim is not independently verified.
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Back's Three-Wave Framework
Blockstream CEO Adam Back argues that Bitcoin's adoption has moved through two phases and is entering a third. Speaking in a Bitcoin Magazine interview and in a podcast later summarized by ZyCrypto, citing Wu Blockchain's tracking, Back described the first wave as individuals buying and miners mining the asset, which ZyCrypto dates from 2011 to 2019. The second wave, which ZyCrypto dates from 2020 to the present, was driven by institutions after spot ETFs made Bitcoin easier for traditional investors to access.
The two sources differ on how they frame the current stage. Bitcoin Magazine's summary places the third wave as "still largely to come," covering model portfolios, managed funds, and pension funds. ZyCrypto goes further, describing Bitcoin as "on the verge" of that wave, and says banks and other investment institutions are already preparing to drive it.
Bank and Fund Participation
According to ZyCrypto's account of the interview, some major investment banks have recommended a 2%-4% Bitcoin allocation in their model portfolios. Many mutual funds, pension funds, and insurance products now offer customers indirect exposure through their investment vehicles, and Bitcoin treasury companies increasingly fill that role, Back said. The sources do not name the banks, the portfolios, or the funds involved, so the allocation figure cannot be checked from the reporting provided.
Bitcoin Magazine's chapter list points to a related theme. Back discusses Swiss banks preparing for institutional demand, including interest in quantum-safe Bitcoin custody, and the regulatory treatment of custody and the Basel rules on the capital cost of holding Bitcoin. Those topics are listed in the chapter summaries but not detailed in the material available here.
The Price Target and Its Status
ZyCrypto reports that Back predicts Bitcoin will reach parity with gold this cycle at a valuation of $1.5 million per coin. This is a forecast from one executive, not a reported event or a filing, and neither source provides a method or timeline for it. It should be read as Back's view.
The sources also disagree on some historical figures. ZyCrypto says Bitcoin reached a record $69,000 in November 2021 and climbed above $100,000 in August 2025. Those are price points cited by ZyCrypto alone; Bitcoin Magazine's excerpt does not give price figures.
Context for Readers
Back's framing fits a broader view that institutional access, through ETFs and then through conventional fund wrappers, is expanding who can hold Bitcoin. Both sources present this as the direction of travel rather than a completed shift. The concrete developments reported are the bank allocation recommendations and indirect fund exposure, which are described but not independently documented in the material provided.
Why It Matters
For Traders
Reported bank allocation recommendations of 2%-4% are unverified, so near-term positioning should not rest on this claim until named sources or filings confirm it.
For Investors
If model portfolios and pension funds do adopt Bitcoin allocations, the buyer base would broaden beyond ETFs, but the sources provide no concrete timeline or confirmed commitments.
For Builders
Growing institutional interest in quantum-safe custody and regulated custody models suggests demand for infrastructure meeting those requirements, though the sources give no specifics.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
