Bitcoin Analysts Split on Bear Market Depth as BTC Trades Near $73,000
Bitcoin has fallen from about $77,000 to roughly $73,140 over the past week, according to CryptoPotato, and analysts disagree on how far the decline will extend. One analyst, Doctor Profit, expects a bottom in the $40,000-$50,000 range around September to October 2026, while a second source cites a prior local top near $82,000 and expects further lows before a bottom.
Written by CoinArticle’s AI Newsroom · from 2 cited sources. How we work
Price Action and Reported Levels
Bitcoin has declined from around $77,000 to approximately $73,140 over the past week, with a notable drop near $72,600 on May 28, according to CryptoPotato. A separate Bitcoinist report frames the decline from a local top of around $82,000, a figure that is not reconciled with CryptoPotato's starting point and likely reflects a different reference period or measurement.
The two sources agree that the market has not yet bottomed, though their timelines and price targets differ. Neither source provides independent on-chain or exchange data to confirm the levels cited beyond the analysts' own charting.
Doctor Profit's Bear Market Framework
Doctor Profit, in a weekly report cited by CryptoPotato, argues Bitcoin remains in the later stages of a bear market, characterized by exhaustion, sideways trading and frustration among participants. He identifies a fifth stage, which he describes as true capitulation, and expects it to begin if Bitcoin falls below $60,000.
He projects a bottom in the $40,000-$50,000 region, with September to October 2026 as the most likely window. He also flagged possible triggers including forced selling by long-term holders, the collapse of a major exchange or large market participant, and other unforeseen shocks. These are scenario assumptions rather than confirmed events.
Analyst Disagreement on the Bottom
Bitcoinist reports that analyst Tony, who predicted the crash from the roughly $82,000 top, expects new lows in the coming months before a potential bottom in this cycle. The source material available does not include Tony's specific price target, so the depth of the expected decline cannot be compared directly with Doctor Profit's $40,000-$50,000 range.
What the sources do share is the view that the cycle low has not yet formed. Where they diverge is on magnitude and timing, and readers should treat both as forecasts rather than measured outcomes.
Derivatives Positioning and Exchange Concentration
CryptoPotato cites analyst Darkfost on the Bitcoin derivatives market, which has not recovered from the October 10 liquidation event in which nearly 71,000 BTC were wiped from open interest within hours. Excluding CME, total open interest is about 351,000 BTC, down from nearly 375,000 BTC before the event.
Binance is the exception, having increased both open interest and market share since October. The report suggests this may reflect trading concentrating on the exchange as liquidity consolidates there, though that interpretation is the analyst's and not independently verified.
Macro Catalysts Flagged by Analysts
Doctor Profit pointed to upcoming US data releases, including ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP employment and nonfarm payrolls, as key inputs for the Federal Reserve's stance. He argued that weak employment alongside persistent inflation would constrain the Fed. He also said markets appear to be pricing a dovish outcome at the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, but he is skeptical that outcome will materialize.
Why It Matters
For Traders
Bitcoin's reported break below $73,000 with a key $60,000 level flagged by one analyst makes the June FOMC and US payrolls data the near-term reference points to watch.
For Investors
Analysts disagree sharply on the bottom, ranging from $40,000-$50,000 to undefined further lows, so multi-month positioning depends heavily on which framework is adopted.
For Builders
Derivatives open interest still sits below pre-October 10 levels outside CME, and concentration on Binance may matter for any protocol relying on liquidity depth assumptions.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
