Bitcoin Falls Below $74,000 as Hot October CPI Revives Fed Rate Hike Bets

Components Behind the Reading

Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase in consumer prices, according to crypto.news. Food climbed 0.5%. Energy rose 0.7%, a much slower pace than September's 5.2% gain.

CryptoPotato quoted RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas, who described the data as evidence of "stubborn and sticky inflation, especially in the service sector," and said he expected the October report would not change the Fed's path toward a December hike.

Fed Pricing and Fed Commentary

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, speaking in London, said he would support a 25 basis point increase at the December meeting even if inflation improved. He also said another core CPI reading of 0.3% could justify a 50 basis point move, and said that threshold was reached in October, according to Decrypt. Reuters, cited by crypto.news, reported that markets had fully priced a 25 basis point increase at the December 9 meeting, which would lift the federal funds target range from 3.75%-4.00% to 4.00%-4.25%. CryptoPotato put the odds of a hike at the final FOMC meeting of the year above 90%. Employment data showed the economy added 165,000 jobs in October.

Market Reaction and Flows

Bitcoin fell below $74,000 on Tuesday. Decrypt reported it traded near $74,200 before the release and briefly touched approximately $73,525, recovering toward $74,000 while remaining about 1% lower over 24 hours. Crypto.news put the price around $73,784 on November 10 after an intraday high near $75,500, and CryptoPotato reported $73,600. The differences reflect sampling times around the release.

Ethereum slipped toward $2,040 during the initial selloff, according to Decrypt. Liquidation figures differ by source: crypto.news reported about $200 million in leveraged positions liquidated within five minutes of the print, while Decrypt reported approximately $178 million in long positions liquidated within an hour. Bitcoin has fallen about 4.5% over the past week and more than 11% over 30 days.

Crypto.news reported that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.28 billion in net withdrawals between November 2 and November 6, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for roughly $1.21 billion of that. Decrypt and crypto.news both reported a further $201 million left US spot funds on November 9. Bitfinex analysts, also cited by crypto.news, said the earlier push toward $80,000 was supported mainly by leveraged futures rather than spot buying.

Upcoming Data

The next scheduled catalysts are the October Producer Price Index on November 13 and the Fed's October meeting minutes on November 18.

Why It Matters

For Traders

With a December hike largely priced in and the PPI print due November 13, a hotter producer reading could extend pressure on leveraged long positions.

For Investors

A Fed tightening cycle still in progress keeps the macro backdrop restrictive for Bitcoin, and sustained ETF outflows suggest institutional demand has not yet offset it.

For Builders

Protocols and products that rely on leveraged funding or ETF-linked liquidity should stress-test for sharper intraday liquidations during macro releases.