Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Set for Largest Cut Since June as Block Times Slow
Bitcoin mining difficulty is projected to fall between 6.4% and 7.8% at the adjustment expected around November 13, 2026, after slower block times. Sources differ on the size of the cut, with one outlet reporting a 9.1% decline, and the network remains about 4.9% below its all-time high.
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The Projected Adjustment
Bitcoin mining difficulty is expected to fall at its next scheduled recalibration, with projections from Crypto Briefing placing the decline between 6.4% and 7.8%. The Defiant reported a larger drop of 9.1%, a figure that falls outside Crypto Briefing's range. The two outlets agree that the cut would be the largest since June, when difficulty fell 10.09%. The adjustment is expected around November 13, 2026.
The discrepancy matters for anyone tracking the figure closely. Crypto Briefing's projection is based on block timing within the current epoch and is expected to narrow as the remaining blocks are mined. The Defiant's 9.1% figure does not come with a methodology in the material provided, so the final number will be the reliable reference point once the adjustment is applied.
Why Blocks Are Arriving Late
Bitcoin targets one block roughly every 10 minutes. During the current epoch, blocks have averaged between 10 minutes 46 seconds and 10 minutes 50 seconds, according to Crypto Briefing. The network recalibrates difficulty every 2,016 blocks based on how long that batch took, which is why slower blocks point to a downward adjustment. The process is automatic and requires no vote or announcement, so projections can be made days in advance from block timing alone.
Hashrate, the total computing power securing the network, has been uneven. It climbed back above 1 ZH/s in October after a summer slump. In November, seven-day averages have ranged between 963 and 1,069 EH/s, meaning the network has at times sat just below that milestone.
Context From a Busy October
Difficulty rose sharply in October. Two increases that month raised the level by a combined 11.8%, according to Crypto Briefing, bringing it close to its all-time high of 155.97T set in October 2025. Current difficulty stands at 148.36T, about 4.9% below that peak, and has been below the record for more than 374 days.
Miner economics provide further context. Hashprice has fluctuated around $33 to $35 per petahash per day, while Bitcoin has traded between $75,000 and $77,000. Crypto Briefing reports that miner revenue reached approximately $1.215 billion in October, the highest monthly total since November 2025. Seasonal energy curtailments, in which miners power down to ease grid strain or avoid peak prices, can also pull machines offline.
What to Watch
Three factors will shape the outcome. The first is where the final adjustment lands within the projected range, which depends on block times over the remaining blocks in the epoch. The second is whether hashrate returns quickly above 1 ZH/s after the cut, which would suggest miners see easier conditions as worth pursuing. The third is whether difficulty can reclaim the 155.97T record, which would indicate sustained appetite for expansion at current prices.
Why It Matters
For Traders
The projected cut could shift near-term miner sell pressure, but the final size of the adjustment is still disputed between 6.4% and 9.1%, so wait for the confirmed figure.
For Investors
Recurring difficulty swings tied to hashrate and miner economics signal how much capital is willing to expand mining at current Bitcoin prices.
For Builders
Teams modeling miner revenue or hashrate-dependent services should parameterize difficulty changes across the full disputed range rather than a single estimate.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
