Bitcoin Tests $61,000 as Liquidations, ETF Outflows and Exchange Inflows Stall Recovery

Coinbase's price premium over Binance has been negative since late April and widened after May 26, according to CoinGlass. Decrypt reads this as a sign of weak U.S. institutional demand. Decrypt also noted that spot orderbook depth at 5% and 10% shows continued dip buying, a counterpoint to the bearish positioning.

Analysts Split on Whether the Flush Is Complete

Bitget Wallet research analyst Lacie Zhang argues the liquidation wave cleared the most crowded bullish leverage and that speculative positioning is now cleaner. She also notes that Bitcoin's 24/7 trading tends to price macro stress faster than equities, with the Dow down 1.2%, the S&P 500 down 0.7% and the Nasdaq down 0.9% over the same period. On her read, a retest of $55,000 to $57,000 remains possible if ETF outflows persist, but that window is narrowing.

Glassnode's June 3 report takes a more cautious view. It recorded a 13% seven-day decline, a short-term holder cost basis of roughly $76,400, and a 7-day Spot Volume Delta at its weakest since February. Glassnode concluded that spot sellers still dominated order books during the bounce and that there was no durable demand response yet.

CEX.IO lead analyst Illia Otychenko told Decrypt that the short-term holder cost basis has fallen below the true market mean, a pattern he associates with the middle stages of past bear markets. He cited several on-chain models that point below $60,000 and identified the realized price near $54,000 as the next major reference point. Koinly CEO Robin Singh said he would not be surprised by a move into the $50,000s.

Flows, ETFs and Institutional Demand

Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard reads exchange flow data as a direct challenge to the recovery narrative. BTC and ETH both recorded net exchange inflows in the 24 hours after the bounce from $61,000, the first such reversal since the June 1 lows. He described the timing as consistent with participants using the bounce as exit liquidity.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged 13 consecutive sessions of outflows totaling roughly $4.4 billion, according to figures cited in the reporting. Sondergaard argues that institutional allocators do not quickly rebuild exposure once they have reduced it, so any return of that demand will track compliance review cycles rather than price action.

Bull Case and Forecasts

Standard Chartered's head of crypto research Geoffrey Kendrick said in a research note cited by Decrypt that the selling may largely be over and kept a $100,000 year-end 2026 target. He also warned that a break below $60,000 could trigger a new wave of selling with no clear floor beneath it. Decrypt reported that on the Myriad prediction market, users now assign a 70% chance that Bitcoin's next major move reaches $55,000 rather than $84,000.

What to Watch

The reporting points to three conditions analysts consider necessary before a bottom can be confirmed: a stabilization in ETF flows, a reversal of exchange inflows, and renewed spot demand that absorbs supply at current levels. Whether the $60,000 level holds is the near-term test cited across the sources.

Why It Matters

For Traders

Negative funding and exchange inflows after the bounce suggest sellers remain active, so the $60,000 level and ETF flow data are the near-term markers to monitor.

For Investors

Sustained ETF outflows and a negative Coinbase premium signal weaker U.S. institutional demand, a factor that may take months to reverse regardless of short-term price action.

For Builders

Sharp shifts in funding rates and open interest show how quickly leverage can unwind, so protocols relying on perpetual or liquidation mechanics should review their stress-test assumptions.