Hilbert CIO Warns Bitcoin Could Fall to $65K If $71,900 Support Breaks
Hilbert Group CIO Russell Thompson warned Bitcoin could fall toward $65,000 if forced selling tied to AI and chip stock losses breaks key support near $71,900. He still expects capital rotating out of AI stocks to eventually flow back into crypto once deleveraging ends.
Written by CoinArticle’s AI Newsroom · from 2 cited sources. How we work
Downside Scenario and Key Levels
Bitcoin could fall toward $65,000 if losses in AI and semiconductor stocks force portfolio liquidations and a major trend line near $71,900 gives way, according to Russell Thompson, chief investment officer of Hilbert Group. Thompson made the comments in a November 9 market report, with Bitcoin trading around $74,200 at the time. He identified initial support at $72,800, moving-average support near $72,700 and the $71,900 trend line. A move to $71,900 would be a decline of about 3.1% from his reference price, and $65,000 would be a 12.4% drop.
The two source reports agree on the levels but differ in how they frame the trigger. One describes the $70,000 round number as an obvious psychological threshold with little technical support behind it, while the other presents it as limited support. Both place the $65,000 concern contingent on losing the $71,900 trend line.
Forced Selling Mechanism
Thompson's core argument is that funding stress in AI and chip stocks could spread to crypto through margin calls. "If you start getting margin calls, then you start selling bits of your portfolio that are not particularly core, and that usually means Bitcoin," he said. He described "blood in the water" around the AI trade, warning that funds exposed to the sector could face further strain. The Nasdaq fell 6% in the session before his comments, according to one of the reports.
The surrounding context is a recovery that has not held. Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 on November 5, supported by $74.6 million in US spot ETF inflows and heavy short liquidations, then fell back to near $76,000 by November 6 after technology-stock losses and $430.2 million in ETF withdrawals.
Flow Data and Options Positioning
Institutional flows remain weak, though the sources report different withdrawal totals. Thompson estimated Bitcoin ETF withdrawals at $1.2 billion for the week. Farside Investors data cited in a separate November 8 weekly roundup recorded $1.28 billion in withdrawals for November 2 to 6. The figures are close but not identical, and the gap reflects a difference in the measurement window and source rather than a substantive disagreement about direction.
Options markets show demand for downside protection. Thompson put five-delta put implied volatility at 51 against 38 for at-the-money options, a 13-point premium, while comparable calls carried only a one-point premium.
Liquidity Indicators and the Fed Backdrop
Hilbert's proprietary global liquidity models have weakened. The five-factor model fell to 2.61 and the six-factor model to 3.02, down 0.62 and 0.25 points from 3.23 and 3.27 in its November 2 update. Thompson describes readings below one as crisis liquidity and above nine as abundant liquidity.
On monetary policy, Thompson pointed to stronger US employment and wage data that has put a December Fed rate hike in play. Market pricing cited in his remarks assigns a 77% probability to a hike at the December meeting. He sees well-anchored inflation expectations and lower breakeven rates as a counterweight that could restrain the Fed even when recent data looks strong. October CPI is scheduled for Tuesday, November 10.
Capital Rotation Thesis
Thompson argues Bitcoin's earlier peak coincided with capital moving out of crypto and into AI, semiconductor and technology stocks. If those positions unwind, some of that money could return to digital assets once deleveraging subsides and markets calm. He has not ruled out a Bitcoin breakout before year-end, but says immediate conditions remain difficult. The recovery thesis depends on the current deleveraging ending, and no timeline for that was given.
Why It Matters
For Traders
A break below the $71,900 trend line would put $65,000 in focus, so the level is worth watching against the upcoming October CPI release on November 10.
For Investors
Sustained ETF outflows and weakening liquidity models suggest institutional demand has not yet returned, even as a rotation out of AI equities could eventually support crypto.
For Builders
Options-implied skew showing a 13-point premium on downside puts signals rising demand for hedging, which may affect protocols that depend on volatility or liquidation parameters.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
