MSCI Decides Whether to Drop Strategy (MSTR) From Global Indexes as Forced-Selling Estimates Diverge
MSCI is scheduled to publish its November 2026 index review after the close on Wednesday, with a draft list already marking Strategy as Deleted. Estimates of potential passive-fund selling range from about $1.57 billion to $2.8 billion, and the two outlets differ on how MSCI's screen should be read.
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What MSCI Is Deciding
MSCI will publish its November index review on Wednesday evening, with any deletions taking effect after the close on November 30. The provider's October 15 screen excludes companies whose balance sheets resemble investment funds rather than operating businesses, and Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, is central to the decision. Per Bitcoin Magazine, MSCI's own draft list built on September 30 financial data already marks Strategy, Japan's Metaplanet and three smaller companies as Deleted.
The screen first asks whether a company's operating assets exceed 50% of total assets. Companies that fail face five financial tests, and an issuer flagged on four or more is ineligible. Bitcoin Magazine notes the rule does not mention bitcoin at all, and that existing constituents are removed only if they fail in both of their two most recent annual filing periods, with MSCI able to consider interim filings as well.
The Accounting Question
The two-period test is where the outcome is most uncertain. Bitcoin Magazine reports that Strategy adopted fair-value accounting for its bitcoin at the start of 2025, while its fiscal 2024 statements carried the coins at cost less impairment. MSCI has not said how it treats that earlier year, and the Deleted mark implies its draft reading is that Strategy failed both periods, though the inputs have not been published. Strategy has argued it reports its bitcoin treasury as an operating segment, with related gains and losses booked in operating expenses. Crypto.news does not address the fiscal 2024 treatment, so this point rests on a single source.
Estimates of Selling Pressure
The outflow figures differ by source and by method. Crypto.news cites JPMorgan's estimate of roughly $2.8 billion in passive-fund selling, and Bitcoin Magazine says the same estimate was built on MSCI's earlier digital-asset proposal, not the October screen, and that JPMorgan projected up to $8.8 billion more if other index providers followed. Crypto.news separately calculates that index-tracking funds hold about 13 million MSTR shares, roughly 3.1% of basic shares, worth about $1.57 billion at Tuesday's close. Crypto.news stresses that this is a market-value estimate of holdings, not a forecast of sales. Bitcoin Magazine says MSCI itself has published no figure.
Bitcoin Magazine also notes that a removal would not delist the stock and would not require Strategy to sell bitcoin. The pressure would fall on the shares and on the premium Strategy relies on when it sells stock to fund purchases. In an August letter to MSCI, the company said a deletion "would have no meaningful impact on Strategy's business."
Price Context and Market Reaction
Crypto.news reports MSTR closed at $121.07 on November 10, down about 16.6% from $145.16 on October 28. Adrian Morris, a market commentator cited by Crypto.news, wrote on X that an official exclusion could produce a further drop but that the move is likely priced in and would not be terminal. Crypto.news also reports Strategy disclosed purchases of 1,036 BTC, bringing holdings to 850,364 BTC as of November 8. Bitcoin Magazine puts the average acquisition price at $75,456 per coin and says bitcoin traded near $73,900 on Wednesday, which would leave Strategy's holdings below that average cost.
What Happens Next
If Strategy fails only its latest filing rather than both, it would not be deleted this round and would instead move to a watchlist, which Bitcoin Magazine says already contains 17 other constituents. The Deleted outcome for Metaplanet and other investment-heavy issuers would be decided on the same test. Passive funds would need to adjust holdings before the November 30 implementation date, and the scale of actual selling would depend on fund exposure and trading activity.
Why It Matters
For Traders
Watch the Wednesday evening MSCI list and the November 30 effective date, since a Deleted outcome could pressure MSTR shares before any passive selling occurs.
For Investors
The ruling signals how index providers may treat bitcoin-heavy balance sheets, which could shape passive demand for crypto-exposed equities over the coming year.
For Builders
Teams designing treasury or tokenized-asset products should model how accounting choices, such as fair value versus cost basis, can determine index eligibility.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
