Polymarket Names Jupiter Executive to Lead Japan Push as India Blocks Access
Polymarket has appointed Mike Eidlin, identified by Bloomberg as head of Japan at Jupiter, to lead its effort to secure legal authorization in Japan by 2030. The push comes as Japan remains on the platform's restricted list and regulators in India, Argentina and parts of the U.S. move against prediction markets.
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Japan Expansion Effort
Polymarket has appointed Mike Eidlin to oversee its Japan strategy, according to a Friday Bloomberg report citing people familiar with the matter. Eidlin is identified in that report as current head of Japan at Jupiter, while crypto outlet Decrypt, citing his LinkedIn profile, describes the same role. Sources told Bloomberg the company is aiming to obtain regulatory authorization in Japan by 2030.
Japan is currently on Polymarket's restricted jurisdiction list, and the platform's website blocks users there citing "regulatory requirements and compliance with international sanctions." A Polymarket spokesperson told Bloomberg the firm has seen "meaningful organic interest from users" in Japan and Asia and is "always evaluating opportunities to expand access globally in compliant and locally appropriate ways." Decrypt reported that the platform's Japanese X account has more than 53,000 followers and that about 169 active contracts are tied to Japanese events, including Bank of Japan rate decisions and political outcomes.
Legal Constraints in Japan
Japan's Penal Code sets a high bar for any gambling-adjacent product. Habitual gambling can carry up to three years in prison, and operating a gambling business can bring three months to five years of imprisonment. Government-approved horse racing and public lotteries are exempt, and pachinko parlors operate in a long-standing gray area tied to token exchange systems.
A separate policy development may matter for the platform's ambitions. Japan's cabinet last month approved a bill that would reclassify cryptocurrencies as financial products under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, adding insider trading prohibitions and annual issuer disclosure requirements, per Decrypt. The bill does not address prediction markets directly, and neither source reports that it would change Polymarket's status in Japan.
Regulatory Pressure Elsewhere
The Japan effort arrives as several jurisdictions tighten access. India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology instructed internet providers and VPN operators to restrict access to Polymarket on Friday, and local outlet ThePrint reported that action against Kalshi is in preparation. Decrypt, citing local reports, says India has blocked Polymarket and is in the process of blocking Kalshi. South Korea's Korea Communications Standards Commission is reportedly examining whether Polymarket hosts illegal gambling content. Argentina ordered providers to block the platform earlier this year, and Colombia and Romania imposed similar restrictions last year.
In the U.S., Minnesota became the first state to ban prediction markets, and the CFTC and Department of Justice sued the state this week over that law. Polymarket returned to the U.S. through its acquisition of the federally regulated derivatives exchange QCEX and, per Bloomberg, remains in talks with the CFTC to restore broader access to its main exchange operations.
Volume and Valuation Context
The sources differ on the scale of recent activity. Decrypt, citing DeFiLlama, reports Polymarket notional volume of $9.967 billion in April, down from $11.275 billion in March. Kalshi rose from $13.211 billion to $14.647 billion over the same period. Decrypt also reports Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation following a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange in October 2025, and Kalshi at $22 billion after a $1 billion raise in March. Crypto.news, citing Reuters, reports Polymarket is exploring a funding round that could value it at roughly $15 billion. Neither source reconciles the $9 billion and $15 billion figures, and Crypto.news does not give a date for the Reuters report.
Polymarket has also expanded institutionally. Crypto.news reports a partnership with Nasdaq Private Market to launch contracts tied to private-company valuations, IPO timelines and secondary-market pricing, with Nasdaq Private Market serving as resolution data provider.
Why It Matters
For Traders
Polymarket's India block and the U.S. CFTC dispute bear on near-term volume and platform access, while the Japan push is a multi-year plan with no near-term change in status.
For Investors
A 2030 Japan timeline and a funding round valued between sources at $9 billion and $15 billion signal how regulatory risk is being priced across prediction markets.
For Builders
Teams building on or integrating prediction market data should expect jurisdiction-level IP blocking and state-by-state U.S. rules to shape where their products can operate.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
