Solana Slides Toward $80 as Fed Hike Odds Climb and Analysts Split on Next Move
Solana traded near $84.50 after a double-digit weekly decline, with one source reporting a roughly 9% drop and another a 12% fall. Analysts disagree on whether the $78-$80 support zone holds, as CME FedWatch odds of a December Federal Reserve rate hike reached about 99%.
Written by CoinArticle’s AI Newsroom · from 2 cited sources. How we work
Price Action and Sources Disagree on the Size of the Drop
Solana (SOL) fell over the past week, though the two source reports differ on magnitude. CryptoPotato reported a double-digit decline and put the price at around $84.50, a 12% weekly loss. CoinJournal put the drop at approximately 9% over the same period and described the asset as approaching the $80 support region. The gap likely reflects different measurement windows or reference prices, and neither source provided a timestamp that would resolve it.
Macro Pressure from the Federal Reserve
CoinJournal tied the sell-off to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase. Citing CME FedWatch figures, the report said the probability of a December hike rose from 84% the previous day to roughly 99% after remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Waller, speaking at a Bank of England conference, said he would favor a 25 basis point increase at the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting even if inflation improved relative to September, and suggested larger action could follow if inflation ran well above his expectations. Higher policy rates generally weigh on risk assets, including crypto.
Technical Levels Analysts Are Watching
The two sources identify different support levels. CryptoPotato cited analyst Ali Martinez, who had described a channel since February with an upper boundary near $98 and a lower boundary near $78, and who flagged $88 as a pivot point. After SOL failed to clear that pivot, Martinez said the asset could move toward the channel bottom. A separate observer, Ted, said the RSI uptrend had been lost and that price needs to hold between $82 and $84.
CoinJournal focused on a fair value gap formed during the August rally, which it places near $80 and describes as a possible demand zone. It named $74 as the next downside target if $80 fails, while noting its source did not identify a confirmed lower support. The daily Relative Strength Index was reported near 23, which is below the conventional oversold threshold of 30. Oversold readings can precede short-term rebounds but do not establish a bottom. CoinJournal named $95 as the nearest significant resistance.
Institutional Flows and Competing Views
CryptoPotato reported mixed institutional signals. Recent filings showed Goldman Sachs fully exited its spot SOL ETF exposure during the first quarter of 2026, a move the report said can weigh on sentiment. In contrast, inflows into spot SOL ETFs have exceeded outflows in recent days, and the last day of net outflows was April 30, according to the same report.
Bullish commentary was also cited. Trader Koala set $135 as a longer-term destination, and SatoshiOwl argued that broad fear could set up a sharp reversal. These are individual analyst views, not forecasts backed by the source data, and they conflict with the bearish technical readings above.
What to Watch
The central question across both reports is whether SOL holds the $78 to $84 zone, which covers the channel floor, the RSI-based level Ted cited, and the fair value gap CoinJournal identified. The December FOMC meeting and the rate-hike probability are the macro variables the sources emphasized most.
Why It Matters
For Traders
A break below the $80 zone, which both sources flag, would put the $74 to $78 range in play, while a hold could set up a rebound toward $95.
For Investors
Sustained Fed tightening expectations raise the cost of holding high-beta assets like SOL, so macro policy outcomes may matter more than token-specific news over the coming months.
For Builders
Weak price action and reduced sentiment can lower on-chain activity and fee revenue, so protocols dependent on SOL-denominated incentives should stress-test runway under a drawdown scenario.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
