Waller Backs December Rate Hike as Bitcoin Slides Toward $74,000
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on November 10 that he supports a 25 basis point rate increase at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, and Bitcoin fell toward $74,000 that day. Waller also said a 50 basis point hike should be considered if core CPI rises 0.3% or more month over month.
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Waller Signals Support for a December Hike
Bitcoin fell toward $74,000 on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in London on November 10, 2026 that he backs raising interest rates by 25 basis points at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for December 8-9. Both Bitcoin and US stock futures moved lower over the course of the day. Bitcoin traded in a range from the mid-$74,000s to the low-$75,000s before sliding toward $74,000, tracking the broader risk-off move in equity futures.
Waller based his case on inflation he described as elevated and spreading through the economy. He said failing to act could undermine the central bank's credibility on inflation.
A Larger Hike Under a Specific Condition
Waller left open a bigger move. He said a 50 basis point increase should be considered if core CPI rises 0.3% or more month over month. That threshold is the number traders now have to watch, and it is the part of his remarks markets have not fully priced.
The timing was pointed. Tuesday was also the day the October Consumer Price Index was released. Waller indicated he would favor the 25 basis point December hike regardless of the print, and said even an improvement from the prior month would not change his view on that move.
What Markets Are Pricing
Market pricing puts the probability of a 25 basis point December hike at around 97%, according to the figures cited in coverage of the remarks. Coverage from The Defiant also reported that Kalshi traders increased their December hike bets following the comments. Under that pricing, a core reading below 0.3% would leave a 25 basis point move as the base case, which markets have largely already priced. A reading at or above 0.3% would open the conversation toward 50 basis points.
The sources differ on framing. Crypto Briefing presents the 97% figure as the current market probability and emphasizes the risk-off move in equity futures. The Defiant centers the Kalshi positioning shift and the 0.3% trigger. Neither source provides a second independent measure of the 97% figure, so it should be read as a single reported estimate.
Reputational Stakes for the Fed
Waller has publicly tied the institution's reputation to acting in December. With roughly 97% of pricing already on a 25 basis point hike, markets appear to expect that outcome, and the open question for traders is whether core CPI crosses the 0.3% threshold he named.
Why It Matters
For Traders
Core CPI at or above 0.3% month over month is the specific trigger that could shift December pricing from 25 to 50 basis points, so that print deserves close attention.
For Investors
A Fed willing to tighten into elevated inflation, with its credibility explicitly at stake, points to a higher-rate regime that weighs on risk assets like Bitcoin over a multi-month horizon.
For Builders
Protocols with rate-sensitive lending or yield products should model both a 25 and 50 basis point scenario, since the 50 basis point case is not reflected in current pricing.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
