XRP Holds Below $1.20 as Analysts Split on Whether Support or a Final Flush Lies Ahead
XRP slipped below $1.20 on November 6, losing ground it had regained above $1.30 days earlier, and sits below its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. Analysts disagree on whether the move marks a bottoming pattern or the start of a deeper downside leg toward $1.10 and below.
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Price Action and Key Levels
XRP traded at $1.1936 on November 6 after touching a session low of $1.1740, according to Crypto.news, with the daily candle down 1.13% and the unfinished weekly candle down 4.73%. The token had rebounded above $1.30 only days earlier, trading near $1.31 on November 5, so the latest decline erased much of that recovery.
The $1.25 area, which price recovered from in early November, no longer holds. Both Crypto.news and NewsBTC identify the $1.20 level as a pivot: NewsBTC's CasiTrades describes it within a broader $1.26 to $1.30 support band, while Crypto.news's Alex Marzell treats $1.20 as the threshold that must be reclaimed for a rebound scenario.
Two Bearish Frameworks
NewsBTC contributor Scott Matherson, summarizing pundit CasiTrades, argues that XRP's four-month consolidation below $1.65 has left the token exposed to one more move into lower macro support. CasiTrades cites $1.10, near the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at about $1.0854, and $0.87, near the 0.854 retracement at about $0.8621, as downside targets, with a break below $1.26 to $1.30 potentially pushing XRP to its year-to-date low near $1.11.
Marzell's near-term framework is tighter. He flags $1.16 as the next downside reference if $1.22 rejects price, followed by $1.14. Crypto.news notes that the 20-day simple moving average at $1.2855 and 200-day SMA at $1.2720 both sit above these levels, which would keep price under resistance even in a modest bounce.
Bullish Counterpoints and Sentiment
The bullish case rests on on-chain and sentiment readings rather than price structure. Ali Martinez estimated whales accumulated roughly 60 million XRP over the week before the November 5 recovery, and Santiment reported 2,147 wallets holding at least 1 million XRP, its highest count of 2026. Santiment also recorded 7,934 new wallets created on November 1, though price weakened despite that network growth.
Analyst Ali Charts reads social sentiment, at its lowest since July, as a contrarian signal, and points to a possible inverse head-and-shoulders with a neckline near $1.60. Both NewsBTC and Ali Charts agree that reclaiming $1.65 or the $1.60 neckline is the first confirmed bullish signal, though they differ on whether a bounce from current levels is likely before that happens.
Momentum and Fund Flows
Daily Aroon Down reads 100% against Aroon Up at 35.71%, indicating recent lows are more recent than highs. Weekly RSI sits at 42.84, below its average of 47.98 but above the conventional oversold threshold of 30. Crypto.news also reported that U.S. spot fund demand has been uneven, with $18.83 million in October inflows followed by $529,510 in net withdrawals on November 2, according to SoSoValue.
Why It Matters
For Traders
XRP's failure to hold $1.20 puts $1.16 and $1.14 in play, while reclaiming $1.22 and then $1.25 would be the first sign of a short-term stabilization.
For Investors
Mixed on-chain accumulation and record wallet counts contrast with a price structure that remains below all major moving averages, so the multi-month trend hinges on whether $1.65 can be reclaimed.
For Builders
Rising XRP wallet counts alongside falling prices show network activity is not tracking price, which matters for any product whose economics depend on token value rather than usage.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
