XRP Faces Shakeout Risk and Multi-Year Cycle Timelines as Price Trades Near $1
XRP is trading just above $1 after a roughly 16% weekly decline, with analysts divided on whether a near-term breakout or further downside comes first. Technical analysts also disagree on timing, with one projecting a cycle peak as late as 2029.
Written by CoinArticle’s AI Newsroom · from 2 cited sources. How we work
Where Price Stands
XRP traded just above $1 at the time of the sources, according to CoinGecko data cited by CryptoPotato, down about 4% over 24 hours and more than 16% over the past week. The token has also fallen roughly 20% over two weeks, 25% over 30 days, and 57% below its level a year earlier.
The Falling Wedge Thesis
NewsBTC, citing analyst MichaelXBT, says XRP has spent months inside a falling wedge on its weekly chart, a pattern that typically resolves upward once price clears the upper boundary. The token peaked at $3.66 in July 2025 and has since shed about 60%, landing near $1.37 before the latest decline. Market commentator Matt Hughes places the breakout threshold at $1.50 to $1.51, a level XRP has not closed above cleanly.
MichaelXBT argues the market will likely push price lower first to flush out holders without conviction. The sources do not agree on how soon that happens: NewsBTC frames it as a possibility this week, while the wedge pattern itself does not carry a timing guarantee.
Diverging Views on Direction
The two sources reach different near-term conclusions. NewsBTC's analysts expect a shakeout before any breakout above $1.51. CryptoPotato's sources focus on the downside: EGRAG CRYPTO sees $1.00 to $1.04 as a zone where price could stabilize, while ChartNerd identifies $1.04 to $1.16 as a short-term target area and warns of a possible double bottom and a "sweep lower" if selling continues. Those ranges sit well below the wedge-breakout level, so the two outlooks point to different outcomes for the coming days.
Long-Term Cycle Estimates
ChartNerd estimates that XRP could take until around June 2029 to set its next cycle high, based on an average of roughly 1,400 days between peaks in the 2013, 2018, 2021 and 2025 cycles. He notes the interval has ranged from 1,186 to about 1,500 days and stresses the figure is a historical comparison rather than a forecast. He also cites past drawdowns of about 95% (2014), 96% (2018 to 2020), and 85% (2021 to 2022), with the current decline at over 71% per CoinGecko, and says further correction is possible if those patterns repeat. Longer-term Fibonacci extension targets of $5 to $8 are also cited.
Demand Signals
Spot XRP ETF flows point in the opposite direction from the bullish framing. According to CryptoPotato, demand disappeared in four of five trading days last week, and more than $18 million left the funds in the first two days of the current week. Cumulative net inflows have fallen from a high of $1.81 billion to about $1.79 billion. ChartNerd argues institutional ETF access is a catalyst this cycle that did not exist in earlier ones, but the flow data so far does not show that support in the recent period.
What to Watch
The two sources agree on the key levels but not on their order. Whether XRP reclaims $1.51 or breaks below $1.00 will determine which analyst framework holds in the near term. The long-term timelines and drawdown figures are historical comparisons, and the sources present them as scenarios rather than projections.
Why It Matters
For Traders
XRP's close above the $1.50 to $1.51 wedge boundary is the level analysts cite for a breakout, while a break below $1.00 would put the $1.04 to $1.16 target zones in play.
For Investors
Spot XRP ETF outflows and the 71% drawdown from the prior peak suggest institutional demand has not yet offset the cycle's selling pressure.
For Builders
Protocols with XRP exposure or liquidity should track both the wedge breakout level and ETF flow data, since sustained outflows may affect collateral values and market depth.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
