XRP Flashes TD Sequential Buy Signal as Santiment Flags Deep Holder Losses
XRP has flashed a TD Sequential buy signal on the 4-hour chart, according to analyst Ali Martinez, who sees a possible rebound toward $1.35. Separately, on-chain firm Santiment reports the 30-day MVRV ratio has fallen to its lowest level since December 2020, with the average recent buyer sitting on an unrealized loss above 47%.
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Technical Buy Signal on the 4-Hour Chart
Analyst Ali Martinez said in a post on X that the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a buy signal on the 4-hour XRP price chart. The setup formed after a downtrend, and the indicator counts consecutive same-colored candles up to nine. Because the sequence completed after red candles, the signal is read as bullish, indicating a potential trend reversal rather than a confirmed one.
Martinez wrote that he expects "a rebound toward $1.35 could come before trend continuation." The TD Sequential is a reversal-spotting tool with a mixed track record, and it does not by itself confirm that price will move in the predicted direction. Bitcoinist, reporting on the same chart pattern, framed the setup differently: Martinez identified a descending channel in XRP and a rebound target closer to $1.30, conditional on buyers reclaiming key support levels. The two write-ups agree on the direction of the expected move but differ on the target, $1.35 in the NewsBTC account and $1.30 in Bitcoinist's.
On-Chain Picture: Holders Under Water
On-chain analytics firm Santiment reported in an X post that recent XRP buyers are in deep unrealized losses. Its 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which compares the current market value of coins with the price at which they last moved, has dropped deep into negative territory. Santiment said the average buyer from the past 30 days is down more than 47%, the lowest reading for this metric since December 2020.
Santiment argued that MVRV tends to average out around 0% over time, which it said makes the current level an extreme undervaluation zone for XRP. That is the firm's interpretation of a mean-reversion pattern, not a forecast. The metric describes the cost basis of recent buyers and does not directly measure selling pressure or future returns.
Price Context
XRP has been trading in a consolidation range around $1.33, according to the source reporting. Both the technical signal and the on-chain reading point to a possible bounce from depressed levels, but neither source reports a volume or derivatives indicator confirming that a reversal is underway. Readers should treat the buy signal and the MVRV reading as analyst and data-firm interpretations rather than established outcomes.
Why It Matters
For Traders
A TD Sequential buy signal near $1.33 with a stated $1.30 to $1.35 target gives a defined reference zone, though the signal is a single indicator on one timeframe.
For Investors
Holder cost basis deep in losses, the lowest since December 2020 per Santiment, marks a historical stress point that merits watching alongside broader market structure.
For Builders
Products that surface MVRV or cost-basis data for XRP should note that the metric reflects recent-buyer P&L and is not a standalone predictor of price direction.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
