Anthropic IPO Valuation Could Fall to $1 Trillion After AI Stock Sell-Off
Major investors say Anthropic's planned Nasdaq IPO may be priced below its $1.5 trillion target, with one suggesting about $1 trillion, after a sharp AI stock sell-off. Prediction markets have pushed back expected listing dates, and a delay remains possible.
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Investors Question the Expected Valuation
Three major investors planning to take part in Anthropic's initial public offering told The Wall Street Journal that the expected valuation will likely need to come down, with one suggesting it could be closer to $1 trillion. The Journal had reported the company was targeting a $1.5 trillion valuation and raising up to $100 billion. One investor said the raise could shrink to around $80 billion, and another raised the possibility of delaying the offering until market conditions improve.
The figures are not uniform across reporting. Crypto Briefing describes recent reports as pointing to around $1 trillion, down from estimates of up to $1.5 trillion, and notes that Anthropic has not yet set a price range or share count. That leaves the final market capitalization at IPO close undetermined. Decrypt also notes that in September a leaked draft filing had shown Anthropic seeking a valuation of around $2 trillion, so the current range under discussion sits well below earlier expectations.
Market Backdrop: The AI Stock Rout
The scrutiny follows a steep sell-off in AI-linked equities. According to NBC News, the S&P 500 closed down 4.4% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.3%, their worst days since April 2025. The Philadelphia semiconductor index slid 12.3% and Nvidia dropped 9.2%. Yahoo Finance data showed the Nasdaq Composite up 1.4% and Nvidia up 3.4% by 11:21 a.m. ET Friday, a partial recovery.
Reuters reported that investors were weighing whether Democratic gains in the midterms could bring stricter oversight of data center construction. Democrats are reportedly preparing bills on electricity cost protections for consumers, independent testing of advanced AI systems and AI liability. Any such legislation would face steep odds while Donald Trump remains in the White House. CNBC reported that Sen. Bernie Sanders has called for a national data center moratorium and that Texas governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has pledged to pause data center approvals in a state with more than a quarter of planned U.S. data center capacity.
Fundamentals and Prediction Market Pricing
Some investors want to see Anthropic's October results before assuming a cut. According to the Journal, annualized revenue run rate topped $80 billion at the end of October, and the company held $146.6 billion in cash as of September 30.
Prediction markets have moved toward delay. On Polymarket, the probability of a listing by November 20 stood at 43% on Friday, while a listing by year-end was priced at 71%. On Kalshi, the chance of an official IPO confirmation before December 1 fell 15 points to 59%, and before January 1 slipped to 68%. Decrypt Predict, operated by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, priced an Anthropic IPO before 2027 at 71%. Analyst Nalin Patel of PitchBook told The Telegraph that a postponement would be more likely if the correction persists, and technology analyst Richard Windsor called a delay an escalating risk.
The Journal reports that Anthropic executives and advisers were expected to meet in the coming days to discuss plans. The company has not publicly commented on a revised valuation, and no price range has been set.
Why It Matters
For Traders
Prediction markets now price a listing by November 20 at only 43%, so near-term positioning tied to an Anthropic listing date should account for meaningful delay risk.
For Investors
A valuation reset from $1.5 trillion toward $1 trillion would signal how public markets are repricing AI leaders amid regulatory and sector-wide pressure.
For Builders
A smaller or delayed Anthropic raise may affect capital available to AI infrastructure partners and the timing of enterprise and developer tooling roadmaps.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
