Kalshi Reports $2.5B in Midterm Volume, Says Favorites Won 98% of Resolved Races
Kalshi reported more than $2.5 billion in trading volume on its 2026 U.S. midterm markets, roughly double the $1.3 billion recorded for the 2024 cycle. The company also said market favorites won 479 of 487 races resolved by 6 a.m. ET on Nov. 4, though figures are company-reported and the two cycles are not directly comparable.
Written by CoinArticle’s AI Newsroom · from 2 cited sources. How we work
Volume Figures and Their Limits
Kalshi reported more than $2.5 billion in trading volume on its 2026 U.S. midterm markets, according to its Nov. 4 recap, compared with $1.3 billion for the 2024 election cycle. Using the company's rounded figures, that is growth of more than 92%. The $2.5 billion figure is a lower bound rather than an exact total, and Kalshi measures activity in notional volume, which does not count viewers or unique traders.
The comparison also spans different contests. The 2024 cycle included a presidential election, while this year's voting centered on House, Senate, gubernatorial and state-level races. The recap does not specify matching market coverage or start and end dates for either period, so the growth figure should be read as directional.
Audience Versus Traders
Kalshi has said that people watching its midterm markets outnumbered traders five to one, a claim it made in October. Coverage of election night described millions following its probability gauges and race maps without placing a bet. The company has not published a methodology for that ratio, so it is best treated as a company estimate.
Favorites Hit Rate
In its initial tally, Kalshi said market favorites won 479 of 487 races resolved by 6 a.m. ET on Nov. 4, a combined success rate of about 98.4%, rounded to 98% in its announcement. The count covered House, Senate, gubernatorial, attorney general, lieutenant governor and secretary of state contests. Several races, including the Alaska and Mississippi Senate contests, were still unresolved, so the figure reflects only the results available that morning.
Accounts differ on how the forecasts performed overall. Reuters reported that prediction markets anticipated Democratic control of Congress but underestimated the strength of some candidates. Analytics firm BETINT, as cited in coverage, counted 14 Democratic winners who had been market underdogs a week earlier, and concluded that markets and polls performed roughly equally well. A separate Kalshi Research working paper by Nicole Kagan and Rubens Baiocchi reported that directional accuracy rose from 93.8% to 98.2% over the three months before voting, with Brier scores falling from 0.040 to 0.016. Because that analysis is company-produced, its results warrant the same caution as the headline hit rate.
Election-Night Market Moves
Kalshi said its House control market reached a 99% probability of a Democratic majority at 8:10 p.m. ET, and its Senate control market crossed the same threshold at 9 p.m. ET. Its live feed recorded a 97.2% Democratic House probability at 6:55 p.m. and later showed several individual races reaching 99%. The platform described these as market projections, separate from official race calls or contract settlement.
Why It Matters
For Traders
Kalshi's reported volume and accuracy figures are company-produced and undefined in method, so treat them as context rather than a signal on current contract pricing.
For Investors
Growth in midterm prediction-market activity suggests rising institutional and retail interest in event contracts, though the reported figures remain unaudited and the 2024 comparison is not like-for-like.
For Builders
Kalshi's counting of notional volume versus unique users, and its window-dependent accuracy metrics, show how dashboard definitions can shape the story a platform tells.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
