Bitcoin Rebounds to $78K After Midterm Selloff; Analysts Split on Bottom
Bitcoin recovered to about $78,300 on November 4 after dropping to roughly $75,600, its lowest level since September 17, as U.S. midterm results showed Democrats winning both congressional chambers. Analysts disagree on whether the dip marks a local bottom, and U.S. spot ETFs continued to record net outflows.
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Price Action Through the Election Session
Bitcoin traded near $78,300 on November 4, roughly 1% higher on the day after recovering from an intraday low, according to crypto.news market data. The decline took BTC to about $75,600 earlier in the session, its lowest level since September 17, after it failed to hold support near $77,000.
The selloff followed a sign of Democrats winning majorities in both the House and Senate, leaving President Donald Trump with a divided government for the remaining two years of his term. CoinDesk reported the same dip to roughly $75,600 and described the rebound as led by DeFi tokens, while tokens linked to Trump fell. The two outlets agree on the low and the direction of the rebound, but CoinDesk's account focuses on sector rotation, which the crypto.news piece does not address.
U.S. stock index futures, including Nasdaq 100 futures, also fell as investors assessed the results, while Treasury yields and the dollar weakened in the initial reaction.
Policy Implications
Democratic control of Congress could complicate parts of Trump's crypto agenda, including legislation meant to establish clearer rules for digital asset markets. Republicans lack congressional majorities, though Trump keeps veto power over bills passed by lawmakers. Neither source reports a specific bill that is now at risk, so the practical effect on legislative timing remains unclear.
Analyst Views on the Bottom
Analysts are divided on whether the low is in. Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe described the move as a possible "sell the rumor, buy the news" reaction and expects further gains if Bitcoin forms a higher low after Wednesday's recovery. Ali Martinez pointed to the short-term holder realized price, which sat near $75,875 when BTC touched $76,195. He compared this with three earlier episodes in March 2023, June 2023 and May 2024, where Bitcoin approached a similar cost-basis level before recovering, and declared "BITCOIN BOTTOM IS IN." These are market predictions, not confirmed outcomes, and the comparison rests on a small number of past cases.
Doctor Profit identified resistance near $78,400, which he called "Level 2," as the level to reclaim on daily closes to confirm that buyers have regained control. Bitcoin also remains below its recent $79,500 resistance and its trading range near $80,000.
Flows and Sector Performance
Despite the price recovery, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net withdrawals during the latest session. That divergence between price and fund flows is the main signal in the data that the rebound has not yet drawn in new institutional demand. DeFi tokens led gains during the rebound, according to CoinDesk, while Trump-linked tokens declined.
Why It Matters
For Traders
Holding above the $78,400 Level 2 resistance on daily closes would be the signal analysts are watching, while continued ETF outflows argue for caution on confirmation.
For Investors
Divided government could slow crypto market-structure legislation, so the policy path for U.S. digital asset rules over the next two years is less certain than before the vote.
For Builders
Sector rotation toward DeFi tokens during the rebound suggests protocol-level activity may be drawing attention even as spot ETF demand softens.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
