Polymarket Trader 0xA2 Holds $917K Paper Profit on Democratic Midterm Sweep
Polymarket's top trader over the past 24 hours, wallet 0xA2, shows about $917,000 in profit after Democrats won both chambers of Congress in the midterms. Most of that gain is unrealized and depends on whether Republicans pull an upset in Alaska's Senate race, which the market prices at 14%.
Written by CoinArticle’s AI Newsroom · from 2 cited sources. How we work
The Leaderboard Result
A wallet identified as 0xA2 ranked first on Polymarket's 24-hour leaderboard with roughly $917,000 in profit, according to the platform's daily ranking. Decrypt and Crypto Briefing both report that the figure is mostly unrealized, meaning it is tied to a position that has not yet settled.
The top 10 wallets on the same leaderboard each made more than $170,000 over the period, according to Decrypt's review of the ranking. For comparison, Decrypt cited the Wayback Machine to report that on a typical March day this year, the top daily winner earned about $154,000 and the tenth-place winner about $29,700.
The Position Behind the Gain
The bulk of 0xA2's profit comes from a single bet of $609,644 that Republicans would win none of the Senate battleground states. When the position was opened, the market priced that outcome at 36%. As results came in, the odds rose to 87%, lifting the position's estimated value to about $1.48 million.
The two sources differ slightly in how they describe the net figure. Decrypt puts the paper gain on this position at about $860,000, while Crypto Briefing gives the same estimate of approximately $860,000. Both agree that the gain has not been realized.
Realized Profit and the Alaska Risk
Separately, 0xA2 locked in $106,115 by correctly predicting a Democratic win in the Texas Senate race. That profit is settled.
The remaining exposure rests on Alaska. Polymarket traders assign a 14% probability to a Republican upset there, which would cause the swing-state bet to fail and erase a large portion of the paper gain. Decrypt notes that Polymarket has recently seen upsets of similar implied size, pointing to Brazil's presidential election two weeks earlier, where Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won despite trading at roughly 20% on the platform.
Context on Prediction Market Activity
Decrypt reports that midterm markets on Polymarket and Kalshi drew more than $546 million in notional volume over the two weeks before the vote, citing Prediction.com data. Kelly Ye, Head of Research at Talos, told Decrypt that Kalshi's odds of a Democratic sweep moved from about 74% to 99% as polls closed, with trading peaking between 8pm and 10pm ET.
Decrypt also quotes Dash, the pseudonymous data lead at Prediction.com, who said sports now dominate trading volume but politics still drives open interest. Experts quoted by Decrypt cautioned that Brazil's prediction market ban had left its odds in the hands of traders with limited local knowledge, a factor they said could explain that miss.
What to Watch
The resolution of Alaska's Senate race will determine whether 0xA2's largest position settles in profit. If the non-Republican outcome holds, the paper gains become realized. If Republicans win the upset, the trader keeps the Texas profit but loses most of the night's winnings.
Why It Matters
For Traders
Most of the leading position's value is unrealized and tied to Alaska, so a Republican upset would materially reduce the gain before settlement.
For Investors
Prediction market volume and open interest around political events are growing, but single-wallet leaderboard results are a weak signal of platform-wide edge.
For Builders
Leaderboard and resolution data on on-chain prediction markets are publicly auditable, so product teams can build tracking and risk tooling on top of them.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
