Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record Roughly $1 Billion in Weekly Outflows as BTC Hits $76,000
Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $648.64 million on Monday, according to SoSoValue, extending last week's roughly $1 billion in outflows. Analysts attribute the selling to de-risking by fund managers amid U.S.-Iran tensions and a shift in Federal Reserve rate expectations.
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Outflows Extend Into a Second Week
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $648.64 million in net outflows on Monday, according to SoSoValue, following roughly $1 billion in outflows the prior week. BlackRock's IBIT led the selling with $448 million, followed by ARK Invest and 21Shares at $110 million and Fidelity at $63 million. The figures reported by 99Bitcoins and Decrypt are consistent, though the 99Bitcoins piece cites a near-$1 billion total over a 24-hour window, a framing that differs from SoSoValue's daily figure and should be read with that caveat.
Price Action and Sentiment
Bitcoin fell 6.7% from $81,700 last Thursday to a weekly low of $76,201, according to CoinGecko, and was trading near $76,680 at the time of reporting, down 0.7% over 24 hours. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 25, a reading in the "Extreme Fear" band. Roughly $670 million in liquidations were recorded last week.
Competing Explanations for the Selling
Sources differ on the primary driver. Wefi advisor Agne Linge told Decrypt the outflows were correlated with the broader market and reflected de-risking by fund managers in response to the escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. CEX.IO lead analyst Illia Otychenko instead pointed to last week's U.S. inflation data, which he said shifted expectations toward a possible Federal Reserve rate hike this year. Otychenko also cited concern that the U.S.-Iran conflict could re-escalate following a Trump social media post. Decrypt noted that Myriad prediction market users place a 2% chance on a 25 basis point rate cut in June and a 4% chance of a larger cut before July.
Structural Factors Cushioning Downside
Several on-chain and derivatives indicators point in different directions. Aggregated open interest fell from $29 billion to $26 billion over two weeks, per CryptoQuant, but remains elevated by recent historical standards. Bitcoin funding rates have turned positive after a multi-month negative streak, which Decrypt reported as a sign investors are opening long positions.
Otychenko argued that long-term holder behavior is the more important factor, noting these cohorts have accumulated BTC steadily for months at a far larger scale than Strategy (MSTR), even as more of their supply sits at an unrealized loss. K33 Research's Vetle Lund has previously linked Strategy's STRC preferred stock to recurring mid-month rallies. Otychenko cautioned that Strategy-driven demand has offset ETF outflows before, as in late January and early February, without sustaining a price recovery.
Prediction Market Read
Users on Myriad assign a 77% chance that Bitcoin reaches $84,000 next, down from 89% a week earlier. The market figure is a sentiment gauge rather than a forecast with an evidentiary basis.
Why It Matters
For Traders
Continued ETF outflows alongside positive funding rates suggest leveraged longs are building into a market still under pressure, so the next 24-72 hours hinge on whether flows reverse.
For Investors
Persistent spot ETF outflows paired with rising rate-hike expectations signal that macro policy, not only crypto-native demand, is now a core driver of Bitcoin's multi-month trajectory.
For Builders
Divergence between ETF flow data and on-chain holder behavior means infrastructure relying on a single demand signal should monitor both institutional flows and long-term holder metrics.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
