Indonesia Blocks Polymarket Over Prabowo Exit Bets, Joining Asia-Wide Crackdown
Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs blocked access to Polymarket on Friday, ruling that its markets are gambling even when run on blockchain rails. The ban followed a market on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office early, and it adds Indonesia to a growing list of restrictions on prediction markets across Asia.
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What Indonesia Did
Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs blocked access to Polymarket on Friday, according to Decrypt. Officials said that platforms letting users wager on uncertain outcomes remain gambling products even when they run on blockchain technology or settle in crypto assets. Alexander Sabar, director general of digital space supervision at the ministry, said in a translated statement that "the government will not make room for any form of gambling online in Indonesia."
The ministry also moved beyond the platform itself. Authorities said they were blocking "similar services which were indicated to facilitate gambling practices online" and were tracing social media accounts affiliated with Polymarket to ensure access restrictions were comprehensive. Bitcoinist's coverage describes the action as part of a broader crackdown on online gambling and prediction markets.
The Market That Triggered the Action
The enforcement followed the launch of a Polymarket market tied to President Prabowo Subianto, asking whether he would leave office early. According to Decrypt, the market had generated more than $51,000 in trading volume and was pricing a 1% chance of Prabowo leaving by May 31 and an 11% chance by the end of 2026. Bitcoinist reported that the bet drew significant online attention, which appears to have been the trigger for regulators to act.
The two sources differ on the scope of the block. Decrypt reports that Polymarket is inaccessible in more than 30 countries, a figure it later clarified in an editor's note. Bitcoinist's coverage frames Indonesia as one of several jurisdictions imposing restrictions, without giving a comparable count. The sources do not state a common figure for how many countries currently restrict the platform, so that number should be treated as Decrypt's estimate.
Regional and U.S. Context
Decrypt reports that Taiwan, Thailand, China and Japan have already imposed restrictions on Polymarket, and that India is in the process of blocking both Polymarket and rival Kalshi. Those actions place Indonesia within a clear regional pattern rather than an isolated decision.
In the United States the dispute is between levels of government. Decrypt reports that Minnesota became the latest state to ban prediction markets, and that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Department of Justice responded with a lawsuit against Minnesota. CFTC Chair Michael Selig has argued that federal agencies need clear policies on prediction markets, warning that heavy restrictions could push the sector offshore and produce FTX-style failures. Lawmakers from both parties have pushed back on that position, citing concerns about insider trading on the platforms.
What Comes Next
The immediate effect is limited to access in Indonesia, and the sources do not describe any appeal or response from Polymarket. The larger question is whether the regional pattern hardens into a coordinated approach or continues as a series of country-by-country decisions, with U.S. federal and state authorities still contesting who holds jurisdiction.
Why It Matters
For Traders
Access restrictions in a growing number of markets may reduce Polymarket liquidity and trading volume, though the sources give no figures showing how much activity is affected.
For Investors
Coordinated Asian restrictions and the U.S. federal-state dispute signal that prediction markets face sustained regulatory risk across major jurisdictions.
For Builders
Teams building on prediction market infrastructure should plan for geo-blocking, account tracing and jurisdiction-specific compliance as baseline requirements.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
